September 26, 2008

Survivor Philippines Spoilers & Speculations!

5TH UPDATE (scroll down!!!)

It's no secret that I'm a big Survivor fan! I joined online fantasy games! I read Sucks! I love to speculate who wins based on "edgic" (that's editing and logic, for you! :)) I also read the spoilers sometimes. Hehe.

It's not surprising then that even if I'm still hurting for not being a castaway, and even if I think that the show's editing needs to be vastly improved (I already surrender to the bad audio and camera work but give me good storytelling, at least!), I'm still religiously watching Survivor Philippines. The show is just critics-proof for fanatics like me.

What's surprising for you I guess is the extent of my fanaticism. Yep, in the tradition of Sucks, I did some snooping and research to spoil and speculate the outcome just for fun. Haha! :) Time will tell if I got it right but if you don't want to be spoiled, then don't read further.

(BTW, with the show's editing, I doubt EDGIC analysis will work in Survivor Philippines. I didn't factor in editing in my speculations).

READY?!? :)

1. The Lone Rider
As we all know, Castaway Gigit is The Lone Rider. Jessica Soho reported that shooting started last July 24. It would then be impossible for Gigit to update his blog while he's on the island, but surprise, surprise, he was able to access the internet and write a blog entry on August 12. That's 19 days into the game. Interestingly, his blog entry was entitled Victim By Choice. :) He made another blog entry 4 days later so speculating that he wrote the blog while on reward is not feasible.

Speculation: Unless we have a 9-person jury, Gigit is voted out pre-merge.

2. The "Friendster" Connection
Unless you're friends with them, I doubt if you can access the Friendster profiles of the castaways. They've placed their profiles in private mode. However, before the show was aired, I was able to access some of their accounts and the connections I found are very interesting.

Discovery: JC is friends with Nikki & Kiko. Kiko is friends with Marlon.

Speculation: As one fan pointed out, what matters is who remained friends after the game. We Filipinos have a habit of adding friends in our Friendster account even if we're not really friends with them so this discovery may not have good spoiler value. What's interesting though is that JC and Nikki are not even tribemates. Were they able to bond in the Loser's Lodge or in the merged tribe? We'll know soon.

Postscript: Days after the show aired, they're no longer connected on Friendster! TPTB might have told them to un-Friendster one another. :)

3. Showbiz Central
After making some nasty comments about Vevherly on the show, Chev did a 180-degree turn and retracted her statements. Did her stance soften because she and Vevherly bonded already in the Loser's Lodge? On the other hand, Chev is still angry at JC. Weren't they able to kiss and make up because JC made it to the jury?

4. Peyups Post
A poster named Kayish of posted a very interesting message in the Survivor Philippines thread.

"cute si farm girl at si nikki in person. everyday kase may nagpupuntang castaway sa office namin kase sister ng boss ko si mommy nins. nung friday si patani and chev ang andun. at si cris pa lang ang guy na nakita ko na kaya di ako makapag comment sa looks ng mga guys in person."

Speculation: Again, the point is who remained friends after the game. Why are they all visiting Nina anyway? Is it because they bonded with her in the Losers Lodge or Jury Cabin? Or do they want to be in her good graces because she's in the Final 2? :) Again, only time will tell but what's important here is who was with whom. Assuming that Patani and Chev went to the office together doesn't bode well for Patani's chances. As we all know, Chev was voted out in Episode 1.

But then again, maybe Kayish is just making this all up.

5. Post-Game Pictures
Thank goodness, a particular castaway doesn't know how to make private albums on Friendster! :) I tell you, these pictures are the real deal! They are obviously taken post-game and based on how they look, you can actually tell who's still tanned and skinny (or those who stayed longer in the game), and who's already regained their natural complexion and normal weight (or those who went to early vacation).


Group Picture

Veronica, Jace, JC, Kaye and Cris lost noticeable amount of weight and still have sunburnt skin. Unfortunately for Patani, Emerson and Kiko, it looks like they haven't lost weight at all (or they've regained their normal weight) and are back to their normal complexion. Rob is thinner but is already fair-skinned.

Patani and Cris

Mmm... really looks like Patani's exposure on the show will be short-lived.

Cris & Emerson

Same with Emerson. He lost weight yep, but compare his skin color with Cris'!

JC, Cris & Marlon

All boys seem to have lost a lot of weight. They still have mosquito bites, noh?!? I'm not sure about Marlon's color, though.

Charice? & Cris

Now I'm not really sure. Is this Charice? I doubt if it's her because she's not wearing the same clothes in the group picture. But if it's her, dang, we could be looking at two of our Final 4 or even our Final 2!

The Bomb!

The first Pinoy Sole Survivor?!?


Jury Members (Two of them could be our Final 2)
Cris, Jace, Veronica, Kaye

Makes Jury?

Makes Jury or Pre-Merge Boot?
Marlon, Rob, Nikki, John

Fate Unknown
Zita, Nina, Charice (but if she's the one in the pic w/ Cris, she's surely a jury member)

Non-Jury Members
Chev, Gigit, Patani, Kiko, Emerson, Vheverly

I actually have friends who have direct connection with Survivor Philippines.:) Mica is friends with JC. Josh works for GMA's News and Current Affairs. But I doubt if they'll give me spoilers. You can, though! Share, come on! Let's make this fun! :)

2ND UPDATE (9/30/08):

I was able to get more post-game pictures. Hehe. Kayo nang bahalang mag-guess kung pano ko nakuha pero upon closer look, mukhang mababago ang predictions ko.

While thinner, mukhang bumalik na sa kanyang fair na kulay si Mommy Nina.

Veronica is not as dark-skinned as I thought she was in the group picture

Tanned talaga si JC! My friend Jordan also told me that JC won. Wala pa namang proof but let's be open to the possibility muna. :)

This is Kaye right? Ang itim ni Kaye! And looking at the group picture now, sila pala ni Cris ang nasa gitna. Bakit kaya? :P

Also, I got a comment na hindi si Charice yung nasa picture with Emerson. Sabi ni Happyjam, "di si charisse yung katabi diyan ni cris sa picture. she's nessa valdellon, the vp for public affairs of GMA."



Late Jury and Final 4 Contender
Cris, Kaye, JC

Makes Jury

Makes Jury?
Veronica, Rob, Marlon

Makes Jury or Pre-Merge Boot?
Nina, Nikki, John, Charice

Fate Unknown

Non-Jury Members
Chev, Gigit, Patani, Kiko, Emerson, Vheverly

So far, tama ako na non-jury member si Emerson. Sino kaya ang next? :)

3RD UPDATE (10/3/08)

1. I just read this interesting post by Trinkets 08 in PEX.

And I quote,
"there was a party last night at the nbc tent. head organizer si jon/john (spell?).. he's really dark pala. and model-ish. andun din si charisse, kiko pati yung may mga tatoo.."

Kung hindi makakababalik si John mamaya, this doesn't bode well for Charice and Kiko's chances because this just means na nagka-bonding sila with John sa Loser's Lodge. We all know naman na di sila close sa current set-up. Ang spoiler lang sa speculation na 'to is the presence of the tattoed guy. Si Cris yun di ba? We all know umabot si Cris sa jury kaya baka wala ring silbi ang sighting na 'to knowing na tayong mga Filipino ay naturally friendly. Hehe :)

Looking at the post-game group picture now though, makabalik man o hindi si John in time for the Tribal Council tonight, it's becoming clearer already that he went out pre-merge. Ang taba n'ya sa group picture sa taas!

2. Isa na namang pasabog and ALAVET!

Angmasasabiko of Pinoy Exchange found this...

Nanay Zita and JC!
If JC's the winner or Final 4 or even a jury member, at nagkita sila ni Nanay Zita after the game na ganito pa sila kapayat at kaitim, no doubt about it, tumagal si Nanay! Yey! :)

BTW, saw my friend Jordan at work today. He told me his source at mukhang credible. Mmm...:)

3. Lisa Asil!

Ah, Lisa Asil of PEX, mas lalo akong nalito sa pictures na pinost mo! This is crazy! Hehe :)

JC and Kaye
Ito hindi nakakalito, from the very start na-speculate ko nang Kaye and JC reached the endgame.

Kaye & Rob
Ito, di rin nakakalito. Mawawala lang ang question mark sa "Makes jury?" status ni Rob dahil obvious na obvious na from this picture that he makes it to the jury (assuming of course, that Kaye made the jury). Potential Final 4 contender na si Rob, sa tingin ko.

Kaye & Kiko
Pero pano 'to? Obvious from the background that they're still in Thailand. If Survivor Philippines really followed the US rules, alam nating ang mga di umabot sa jury ay naka-segregate sa mga jury members. Pinapabakasyon muna sila sa ibang lugar habang nagpapatuloy ang game. Oh well, for now promote muna natin sa "Makes Jury?" status si Kiko. Kahit papano, mas maitim pa rin si Kaye sa kanya diyan. :)


Late Jury (including Sole Survivor)
JC, Rob, Kaye, Cris

Makes Jury
Zita, Jace

Makes Jury?
Kiko, Veronica, Marlon

Makes Jury or Pre-Merge Boot?
Nina, Nikki, Charice

Non-Jury Members
Chev, Gigit, Patani, Emerson, Vheverly, John

4TH UPDATE (10/09/08)

With Nina leaving tonight, Kayish's post (see above) finally makes sense. The arrangement of the castaways in the post-game group picture (see above) is now also very telling. Somebody also told me that the Final 2 consists of two male castaways. That info still has to be verified but for now, let's update our predictions as to who made it to the jury and who enjoyed an early vacation in Loser's Lodge.

Late Jury (including Sole Survivor)

Makes Jury

Makes Jury or Merge Boot

Non-Jury Members

5TH UPDATE (10/24/08)

Oh my effin' gulay! I got all the pre-merge boots right! Crazzzzy! :)

So THIS is the money shot pala! If it is, then I guess MARLON is the merge boot.

(If you want to share a Survivor Philippines spoiler, just PM me. :)


happyjam said...

di si charisse yung katabi diyan ni cris sa picture. she's nessa valdellon, the vp for public affairs of GMA.

beatlebum said...

oh. thank you. any spoilers to share? hehe :)

Anonymous said...

tol di pwedeng i predict na si jc nanalo...kasi malalaman yan sa last episode na which is live..pwedeng kasama siya sa 2...dun sa episode na yun i ta tally ni paolo yung votes......

peace......kung alam na ng gma 7 kung sino nanalo eh! lokohan..kasi nga dapat hindi bubuksan till dun sa last episode.....

beatlebum said...

i know. ;) pero do you honestly believe na hindi alam ng mga producers kung sinong nanalo even in the US version? ;)

of course yung castaways ang dapat di alam kung sino sa final 2 ang nanalo.

macky the boy wonder said...

one of my credible friends said that the final 2 is two guys... based on your information above, i think JC and CRIS are the two guys. Anyways thanks for your comprehensive spoiler blog! Bookmarked!

beatlebum said...

wow! how credible is that friend? :)

TheScud said...

my merged tribe members:
Naak - Cris, JC, Kaye, Rob, Kiko, Zita
Jarakay - Jace, Veronica, Marlon, Charisse

That means for the next 4 weeks Naak will win 3 immunity challenges (Nina, Nikki, John boot) and Jarakay wins 1 (Vevherly boot).

beatlebum said...

Swak sa speculations ko actually. May I know your source? Kung valid ang source, I will update my list based on your spoiler. :)

happyjam said...

huwaw?! is that a spoiler or what? LOL

i thought that's really possible to happen. i assumed naak will lose the IC tonight and Vheverly will get the boot come TC tomorrow night. if Nina will leave the island for good because of her injury, then now we have a balanced number of members in the 2 alliances in Jarakay. hmmm... i wonder what is the twist in tonight's IC.

happyjam said...

if Nina leaves tonight then the spoiler i accidentally read weeks ago is not true. i'm rooting for her pa naman kung true yun. hehehe. now, i can root entirely for naak members in the final 2.

beatlebum said...

i think the twist is basically letting the jaracay members see the dynamics of naak's tribal council. btw, i'm updating my speculations based on what happened tonight. :)

TheScud said...

pareho tayo ng list ng mga nakaabot sa merge. haha.

i dont havr any source na real person. sa internet lang. i read somewhere na nadulas daw si chev during one of her interviews. tinanong ata sya kung sino bet nya ang she said na si veronica daw kung hindi lang daw pinagtulungan.

Does that mean sya ung last Jarakay standing? I think when the tribes merge pagtutulungan kaagad ng Naak si Jace. He's too much of a threat sa individual IC.

Check my blog pala. Andun ung mga speculations ko about SP. Adik!

happyjam said...

beatlebum, you're right. Jarakay just observed the Naak's TC but Paolo Bediones (LEBRAB) posted in PEX that there's another twist coming up that's why Jarakay tribe was there at the TC. it seems like there will be an early merge but i don't think so. hmmm...this is exciting! hehehe.

The Techno Dome said...

I think that Jarakay will lose two straight immunities. Will vote Nikki, then John out.

Then, tribes will merge. Naak boots off the MARLON with CHARISSE to hang on with the tribe.

We will see Jace/Vern to leave next.

Charisse will be the last Jarakay. She and Kiko might have a plot against the original Naak alliance, but will not be spared.

From the Top 5, I believe Rob or Cris would simply miss the Final 4. Since JC, Zita and Kaye are weaker tribemates thus a pawn to win in the Final 2. I guess Cris will take the fall coz ROb's such a dumb ass.

ROB-ZITA-KAYE-JC will be the final 4. :)

THats how I see it.

beatlebum said...

thescud, clampz of pex that they may do it ala US survivor. the witnessing tribe can vote to immune a player from the losing tribe. :) if they do merge early, they might also do it ala Survivor Thailand, the two tribes live together in one island but are still competing tribes. :)

technodome, good speculations! :) i'm just not sure if the Philippine castaways are savvy enough to think that way (i.e. bringing a weaker castaway as your final 2 partner) or if the alliance of boys isn't that tight. :)

Anonymous said...

my speculation : F3 = kiko,jc,rob.


mb said...

mukang tama predictions a! galing!

Anonymous said...

alam na syempre ng GMA kung sino ang nanalo kasi diba pinapakita naman ng jury yung votes nila....nakuhana yun at na-edit na....

meowchie said...

hi there.. :)

tanggal na si kiko.. sana sunod na si marlon.. hahaha..

jc parin ako for sole survivor.. :)

beatlebum, post ka pa! hehe :)

nice blog! :)

beatlebum said...

salamat. wala kasi na akong bagong info kaya wala ng update. :) basta sa ngayon lang, my predicted final 4 stays. :)

Eddie said...

Great analysis! Keep up the good work! If I may contribute, I do think Edgic may work for SP.

As I understand, edgic basically favors complex player (CP) characters. They have some back story, and they strategize, but not too much, as compared to: Over-the-top (OTT) players, who have exaggerated characteristics, are usually distractions, so they don't win. Under-the-radar (UTR) characters are almost always neglected (they are usually hidden) so they also almost always don't win. Then there are the middle-of-the-road (MOR) characters who are here and there and are not really the focus of the season.

Right now, I think we could classify the remaining as (difficult to have UTR characters now because of the exposure everyday):

CP (Positive) - JC
CP (Neutral) - Cris, Kaye (now neutralized tone because of the betrayals)
OTT (Negative) - Marlon
OTT (Positive) - Zita
MOR (Slightly Negative) - Rob
MOR (Neutral) - Charisse

If Edgic would still work, the winner should be generally CP (whether positive, neutral or negative), and one of either JC, Cris or Kaye should win.

The rest, I would have put as:
CP (Positive) - Nina
CP (Negative) - Emerson
MOR (Slightly Positive) - Jace
MOR (Neutral) - Gigit, John, Vevherly
OTT (Negative) - Chev
UTR (Neutral) - Patani, Nikki
UTR (Slightly Positive) - Vern

Benj said...

Man, you are hitting this one right on the money! Congratulations! mabangis ang analysis so far.